An Occassional Glimpse Into My Life

Let me give the bad news first, however. I've previously noted that scientists expect a weak to moderate La Nina this summer, and that such events in the Pacific Ocean typically mean the Atlantic hurricane season is more active.
One of the researchers today -- and since the conference is "off the record" I am going to withhold names -- presented fairly compelling evidence that a La Nina is particularly bad for the Gulf Coast and Mexico. The scientist broke down storms in the Atlantic basin into three groups:

Cluster A: Storms that form out in the Atlantic and typically curve into the Eastern U.S. or back out into the ocean.

Cluster B: Storms that form between the Canary Islands and Florida, and generally strike Florida or the Gulf Coast.

Cluster C: Storms that form in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, and impact the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida.

Based on the talk, during La Nina years, two bad things tend to happen for Texas. First of all, according to graphics shown at the conference, the paths of Cluster C storms shift westward, so instead of hitting Florida or even curving back into the Atlantic, they hit Mexico or southern Texas. The Bay of Campeche is incredibly active.
Secondly, the activity in Cluster C blows up during La Nina years.
By way of comparison, for "Cluster A" storms in recent decades, 52 storms formed during El Nino years and 39 during La Nina years. For "Cluster C" storms -- which are much more likely to strike Texas -- the opposite is true. Just 36 storms formed during El Nino years, versus 56 during La Nina.

One final thing: historical trends suggest not only an increased number of storms during La Nina, but that the storms which form tend to be stronger.

All in all, it made for a fascinating presentation. By breaking the historical genesis and paths of Atlantic storms into three "clusters" the researcher identified some very powerful correlations. The bad news? None of the correlations bode well for Texas during the 2006 hurricane season.
Sci Guy

Hold on to your hats ladies and gentlemen

till then